Amidst the news of one person’s death in UK due to Omicron, the global crisis is on the rise.  The new Coronavirus variant could lead to 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in the United Kingdom by April next year, if strict measures are not implemented, reported a modelling study.

This study has suggested that Omicron may be capable of leaving behind a storm of transmission in England which could soar the number of cases and hospitalizations higher than January 2021.

London School of hygiene & Tropical Medicine’s (LSHTM) researchers in the UK made use of the newest experimental data insights about the antibody-evasive characteristics of Omicron to discover plausible aspects to bid good riddance to the variant.

In a less-severe situation, a deadly wave of contagion is projected to cause a rise of up to 2000 regular hospital admissions, leading to an overall  hospitalizations of 175,000 people and 24,700 deaths between December 1, 2021 and April 30, 2022, if significant steps towards additional control are not taken.

The optimistic scenario assumes a reduced level of immune escape of Omicron and increased efficacy of vaccine boosters.

In this scenario, implementing control measures early in 2022 which are inclusive of closing some entertainment venues, restrictions on indoor hospitality as well as on gathering sizes would be enough to substantially control this new variant. In fact, it would even lower hospitalizations by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600.

In the pessimistic scenario, it may assume an increment in immune escape and reduced efficacy of vaccine boosters.

Such a situation brings forth a high tide of infections which may cause a rise in hospital admissions twice as much as observed in January 2021, if no critical control measures are followed, with 492,000 hospitalizations and 74,800 deaths.

Rosanna Barnard from LSHTM, who has co-led the research said, “There is a lot of perplexity about the characteristics of Omicron and whether Omicron in UK will take the similar route as it has in South Africa.”

“More information is coming over the next few weeks that will keep us well-informed about Omicron and the repercussions of this transmission in England. But, this early study will be instrumental in fathoming potential future of a quickly evolving crisis.” Barnard added further.


Leave a Reply